Tuesday, 1 December 2009

Ay, ay Dubai...




I mentioned in previous posts that some countries would be more vulnerable to the current economic climate than others. Some contributing factors:

Strong investment in property
“Thriving” financial markets
… and it goes without saying but I will say it anyway, strong input from economic, financial and “strategy” “technicians” educated in the United Kingdom and/or the USA

Dubai ticks all the boxes above and it is without surprise that is going bust pretty soon, an Icelandic Middle East equivalent. It is still surprising to hear some Anglo–Saxon politicians statements on the world economy recovery when they are no more than wishful thinking. To this date no change whatsoever has been made in the financial processes that led to this state of affairs. Deals are still being dealt with the same models, derivatives are still being derived, and exoticisms are still being “exoticized” using the same flawed formulae and methods.

Also surprising is the facts that Anglo–Saxon banks are now posting profits and paying bonuses!!! How can this be possible after more than $1 trillion has been given away to that market sector? Or have the banks accounting methods been Enronized?

Everyone is aware of the lack of investment on businesses in the current financial context. Banks use the excuse, and look very wise and full of public support, that they do not want to take risks in the same fashion they did before. The fact is, even with quantitative easing and State subsidies, banks are still posting losses on a daily basis with deals that were made years ago now maturing at bargain basement prices. So they literally have no cash to lend, there is no cash available in the financial markets, the USA and UK are slowly becoming a Zimbabwe style economy.

So… ay, ay Dubai is another nail in the coffin of the Global Market Paradise. The investors in the busted “World” (how appropriate) and "Palmyra" are now left reeling but most of them are the bottom of this pyramid scheme that was slowly built in the last 30 years. Profits on the above developments were already taken 5 to 8 years ago, even before the first bucket of concrete was sent to the middle of the Persian Gulf.

It is once again up to the Governments to pick up the pieces. In the case of Dubai they have one simple choice… sell oil at higher prices to cover the losses. This is not going to help the Western World… at all. The USA will have to come and “help”… again but this time with dollars printed in the backyard… and Dubai could become easily the 52nd State of the USA in the next couple of years. Either that or the world will have to pay $30 a gallon for gas in the next 6 months. Tough choices!

3 comments:

  1. Now real work is exported to the new countries, the reason, it is said, work became just too expensive. Those people who are responsible to care about the value of our money do nothing more than thinking all day how to move it to their own bank accounts. Gambling with our income, printing new money, making jokes about the strange guys who do the real work but get less and less money for their own life.

    Poor old world? Just the opposite, we are rich enough to support unemployment! If there would be real need everybodies help would be indispensable! This illlogic leads to hunger and war, take care :/

    ReplyDelete
  2. Its WonderFul Post, Excellent work, keep it up

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thank you for your kind remark. Regards

    ReplyDelete

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She's fit?

My apologies for this Julie... one day I may tell you the story.